Mexico Open Picks

Despite the presence of Masters champion Jon Rahm, this week’s Mexico Open has arguably the weakest field of any PGA Tour event so far this year. For viewers, that means the potential for a lot of head-scratching - wait, who is this guy again? - while watching the telecast. For those looking up the odds on sports betting sites, though, it means the potential for opportunity.

World No. 1 Rahm and world No. 16 Tony Finau are the only two A-listers teeing it up in Vallarta after finishing 1-2 in the inaugural Mexico Open last season. This year, Rahm opened as the +280 (14/5) favorite with most golf betting sites, and Finau as the +750 (15/2) No. 2 odds choice. Everybody else opened at +1800 (18/1) or higher, meaning you don’t have to go very far down the odds board to find real value. Of course, that’s assuming someone can take down the two big guns at the top.

Rahm has had a deserved week off since winning the Masters and finishing T15 in Hilton Head. He is playing in Mexico to follow mentor Seve Ballesteros’ lead of fostering the game around the world. Finau, meanwhile, hasn’t had a finish in the single digits since January. There are also 17 Latin American players in the field, 10 of those on sponsor exemptions.

Mexico Open at Vidanta Course Overview

Winding along the Ameca River and featuring majestic views of the Sierra Madre mountains, the Vidanta Vallarta course plays for the pros as a par-71, 7,456-yard layout. Designed by Greg Norman, the course rewards big hitters with generous landing areas, and forces approach shots into large, undulating greens protected by cavernous bunkers. The scene itself is captivating, complete with an overhead gondola that ferries guests to the beach and features iguanas sunning themselves on rocks.

The course, opened in 2016, was toughened by the addition of 51 bunkers and lengthen by 250 yards before the arrival of the PGA Tour in 2022. The par-4, 500-yard 10th hole, which ranked the eighth-most-difficult hole all of last season on tour, can be especially hard. Even so, Rahm opened with a 64 here last year, and Finau and Brandon Wu each closed with 63s. Just watch out for crocodiles in the water hazards.

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Mexico Open at Vidanta Betting Angles

Rahm, who hung in there at Hilton Head despite coming off an exhausting Masters, should be ready to contend after a week off and returning to a course where he shot 64-66-68-69 a year ago. We’re a little more concerned about Finau, who finished T26 at Augusta and T31 at Harbour Town, and last cracked the top 10 Jan. 28 at Torrey Pines.

The wild card here is world No. 81 Wyndham Clark, who’s been outstanding with top-six finishes in three of his last four starts. Yes, he claimed third with Beau Hossler in a team event last week in New Orleans, and yes, his sixth-place result in Puntacana came while all the heavy hitters were at the WGC Match Play. But he’s also shot 70 or better in 13 of his last 16 rounds and has +1800 (18/1) odds of winning in Mexico with the best golf betting apps. Another intriguing play is former U.S. Open champion Gary Woodland, who finished T9 at the Genesis and T14 at the Masters, and has +2500 (25/1) odds to win.

Beyond that? Consider world No. 110 Patrick Rodgers, who over his last two outings finished solo fifth at the Texas Open and T19 at Hilton Head and is also +2500 (25/1) to win. Alex Noren, a +3500 (35/1) wager at most betting apps, is ranked No. 50 in the world - even though his best finish this season was T15 at Texas. Emiliano Grillo, an Argentine with +5000 (50/1) odds, is coming off a solid T7 at Hilton Head where he shot in the 60s in every round. And +5500 (55/1) bet Wu, who tied Finau for second in Mexico last season, has been top 20 three times this year.

If it’s not Rahm or Finau, it’s someone who catches lightning in a bottle over four days. Could it be +7500 (75/1) bet Patton Kizzire, who’s had some outstanding efforts this year ruined by awful final rounds? Or +3500 (35/1) bet Maverick McNealy, who is back from a shoulder injury that derailed a promising start to his season? Should Rahm and Finau slip up, the possibility is there for anyone this week in Mexico. Place your bets, pour a tequila and enjoy. 

Mexico Open at Vidanta Predictions

Jon Rahm to Win, +280 (14/5)

Chalk, yes, but there’s a reason the guy is such a prohibitive favorite. Toss out the WD from The Players Championship, and he’s won four of nine starts this season. How good is Rahm? The Masters champion had to be running on fumes by the Sunday of the RBC Heritage, and he still put down a 68. He’s the best player in the world, in the weakest field of the year, on a course where he went 17-under a season ago. The math just adds up.

Wyndham Clark Top 5, +360 (18/5)

It’s reasonable to have doubts about Clark, given that his two most recent top 10s have come in a team event and a tournament played at the same time as the Match Play. But he also placed fifth in the Valspar, tied for 10th at the Phoenix Open, and went as low as a 66 at the RBC Heritage. The Colorado native has been putting up good scores in bunches—he just needs to string together four in a row. 

Brandon Wu Top 10, +500 (5/1)

The Stanford product has missed the cut five times this year, but if he can manage to stick around on the weekend, watch out. He fired a pair of 66s to finish T2 at Pebble Beach, closed with a 65 to secure a T14 at The Honda Classic and carded back-to-back 69s to finish T19 in The Players. And Wu is another player who seems very comfortable at Vidanta Vallarta, where he closed with a 63 last year to knot Finau for second.

How to Watch the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Thursday and Friday, Golf Channel from 15:30-18:30 ET; Saturday and Sunday, Golf Channel from 13:00-15:00 ET and CBS from 15:00-18:00 ET.